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January 20, 2021

2021 Outlook – International Equities | CI Global Asset Management

Outlook

 

Our outlook for 2021 is that the delivery of a vaccine in the first half of the year should lead to economic recovery in the second half due to pent-up demand. Similarly, travel and leisure will likely improve in the back half of 2021, with domestic and regional travel improving ahead of international. We believe a post-pandemic recovery will favour a broader rally in stocks and help to rebalance equity markets that have become heavily biased towards large-capitalization growth and momentum stocks.

 

Regionally, Asia has generally (apart from India) handled the pandemic better than the rest of the world. This has greatly supported its economic recovery, which is already back to pre-pandemic levels. Chinese and U.S. relations could improve under president-elect Joe Biden, but it will not be a reset to the pre-Trump era relations. Overall, Asian economies and markets may lead the post-crisis recovery. Elsewhere, equity valuations favour the U.K., continental Europe and other international developing and developed markets. However, the fallout of a no-deal Brexit is still uncertain.

 

Looking to equities, we expect small to mid-capitalization stocks to benefit from an economic recovery. A weaker U.S. dollar would likely favour non-North American equities.

 

Positioning and opportunities

 

At Black Creek, we do not position our portfolios based on any short-term market view because we believe predictions based on what the market or economy will do in the short-term are inherently unreliable. We are acutely aware of the forces within global markets, as this is the environment in which our portfolio holdings operate, however, we take a bottom-up approach. For us, successful investing requires evaluating companies of interest on a fundamental basis and having the patience to take a long-term strategy.

 

We build unconstrained, high-conviction and concentrated portfolios that look very different than the market. We believe that having a differentiated view is the only way to produce differentiated results for our clients. As always, we will continue to look past the noise of the markets and use volatility to our advantage as we invest in a portfolio of winning businesses at attractive valuations.

 

Risks

  • There are a variety of risks that could raise concerns in the coming year as noted below. But staying true to our investment strategy, we monitor these factors to both mitigate the downside and capitalize on investment opportunities.
  • COVID-19 vaccines have been approved in many countries and are beginning to be distributed. However, infections continue to surge across the developed world and restrictions to contain the virus’s spread could mean a long and difficult winter.
  • A new mutation of the virus could cause a renewed cycle of lockdowns.
  • Equity markets are increasingly beholden to accommodative central bank policies and low interest rates.
  • High (and in some cases stratospheric) valuations and unrealistic growth expectations are a concern for certain areas of the market, including large-capitalization technology stocks, electric vehicle manufacturers and new initial public offerings (IPOs).
    • Equity valuations do matter, less so in the short run, but certainly in the long run.
  • Government stimulus and central bank support for economies through the pandemic has led to an extraordinary debt burden for many governments, individuals and companies.
  • If inflation rebounds quicker than expected, it could lead governments to raise rates and reduce stimulus.
    • If governments taper support, companies and individuals will have to focus on deleveraging, which will impact spending and investment. We are also wary of commodity price inflation.
  • Tax hikes are a possibility to help pay the bill for COVID-19 support.
  • We could see a government crackdown on big technologies’ power and monopolistic practices in the U.S., Europe and China.
  • A dominant (reserve currency) U.S. dollar is not a given.
  • Despite a growing consumer base, Asian economies remain dependent on global manufacturing and trade.
  • Geopolitically, we are monitoring the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, as well as the upcoming French and German elections.
  • A major cyber security/geopolitical event that would test the incoming U.S. administration.
  • A positive upside risk could come from pent up demand that is beyond expectations (beginning as soon as March) in economies which open early.

 

Sources: Black Creek Investment Management as at December 22, 2020.

 

For more information, please visit ci.com.

About the Author

Richard Jenkins


Richard Jenkins

Chairman and Managing Director
Black Creek Investment Management

Richard joined Black Creek Investment Management in 2008 and has over 32 years of investment management experience as an investment analyst and portfolio manager of international equities. Prior to joining Black Creek, Richard was with AIM Trimark/Trimark Investment Management, where he was responsible for funds with combined assets of $10 billion, including Trimark Europlus, Trimark Global Balanced Fund, Trimark Select Growth Fund, and Trimark Fund. He also has experience managing equity and real estate portfolios with Toronto Dominion Investment Management and with AMHC Alberta Heritage Savings and Trust fund. Richard has a Bachelor of Commerce degree with distinction from the University of Alberta, an MBA from INSEAD (European Institute of Business Administration), has completed programs in Behavioural Finance at Harvard University. He is a member of the Business Advisory Council for the Alberta School of Business.

About the Author

Bill Kanko


Bill Kanko, CFA

President and Portfolio Manager
Black Creek Investment Management

Bill is the founder and has been President of Black Creek Investment Management since 2005. He has spent his career of more than 37 years as an investment analyst and portfolio manager. Prior to Black Creek, Bill was a Senior Vice President with AIM Trimark, acting as lead manager for the Trimark Fund and Trimark Select Growth Fund. Bill has managed mutual funds for Mackenzie Financial (Universal Growth Fund and Ivy Foreign Equity Fund), and he was an investment analyst at Confederation Life Assurance Company. He is a graduate of the University of Western Ontario with an Honours Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration and is a CFA charterholder.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS

 

This document is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal, legal, accounting, tax or investment advice, or construed as an endorsement or recommendation of any entity or security discussed. Every effort has been made to ensure that the material contained in this document is accurate at the time of publication. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. All charts and illustrations in this document are for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to predict or project investment results. Individuals should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding any particular investment. Investors should consult their professional advisors prior to implementing any changes to their investment strategies.

 

The opinions expressed in the communication are solely those of the author(s) and are not to be used or construed as investment advice or as an endorsement or recommendation of any entity or security discussed. Individuals should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding any particular investment. Investors should consult their professional advisors prior to implementing any changes to their investment strategies.

 

Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe” or “estimate” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what CI Global Asset Management and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither CI Global Asset Management nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change, which may impact the information contained in this document.

 

Black Creek Investment Management Inc is a portfolio sub-advisor to certain funds offered and managed by CI Global Asset Management.

 

CI Global Asset Management is a registered business name of CI Investments Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

 

© CI Investments Inc. 2020. All rights reserved. Published December 30, 2020