May 14, 2025
From Panic to Perspective – A Reminder of What Still Works
CI ETF Pulse
“In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.” - Miyamoto Musashi
The most turbulent moments have a way of shrinking our perspective. We stop thinking in years and start reacting to now. And because “now” feels chaotic, we instinctively project that chaos into the future. Coming into this year, many advisors we spoke to had already positioned portfolios with discipline: de-risking concentration, adding quality, building inflation resilience, and preparing for geopolitical uncertainty. Now may simply be the time to pause, tune out the noise, and trust the strategy already in place. There is a reason why those choices were made—and why they matter, especially in today’s environment.
Below are several reminders of why portfolio ingredients like CI Auspice Broad Commodity Fund (CCOM), CI Gold Bullion Fund (VALT.B), and CI U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Index ETF (DGR.B) collectively provide strategic resilience designed to outlast turbulent markets.
1. HEDGING STAGFLATION RISK WITH CCOM:
If tariffs persist, they raise the probability of a stagflation backdrop: slower growth, stickier inflation. That’s a difficult combination for traditional portfolios—and exactly the kind of regime CCOM was built for. It gives diversified exposure across commodity sectors, with rules-based adjustments and no need to make concentrated commodity bets. Think of it as a structural hedge against upside inflation surprises. Looking at the post-COVID-19 inflation cycle, we can divide it into two distinct phases: an inflationary phase (red shaded area) and a disinflationary phase (green shaded area)—see Chart 1. Gold’s rally, as shown in Chart 2, came later during the disinflationary period. In contrast, the Auspice Broad Commodity Excess Return Index (tracked by CCOM) provided protection precisely when inflation surprises were most extreme.
CHART 1
CHART 2
Source: Morningstar Direct, St. Louis Fred, as at March 31, 2025.
2. “GOLD IS LONG CHAOS”
Gold doesn’t need forecasts. It responds to volatility, policy confusion, and tail risk. That’s why VALT.B continues to play a role in portfolios as a core, trusted chaos hedge. Gold doesn’t always outperform—but when it does, it’s often when nothing else can. Together, CCOM and VALT form a more complete solution—built to help portfolios withstand today’s highest macro-economic risks: inflation resurgence, policy confusion, and political uncertainty.
| Name | YTD Performance | Performance since Feb 19, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| CI Gold Bullion Fund Unhedged (VALT.B) | 18.9% | 7.5% |
| CI Auspice Broad Comm. Fund ETF (CCOM) | 4.7% | 0.9% |
| S&P 500 TR CAD | -3.8% | -6.5% |
Source: Morningstar Direct, as at April 2, 2025.
3. U.S. EXPOSURE WITHOUT THE TWO EXTREME RISKS
The U.S. remains the global growth leader, but with the S&P 500 still richly valued (even after the recent correction) and increasingly concentrated, how you stay invested matters more than ever. DGR.B is built to avoid both valuation and concentration risk—two dynamics illustrated in Chart 3—while still capturing meaningful upside. Historically, that’s meant participating in most of the gains while sidestepping some of the downside.
CHART 3
Left side shows S&P 500 forward P/E (valuation risk). Right side shows concentration risk.
Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P. As at: March 21, 2025.
Avoiding these two risks has benefited DGR.B in real time. Both year-to-date and since the S&P 500’s drawdown began on February 19, 2025, DGR.B has delivered almost double the downside protection.
That protection helps from a behavioral perspective as well, especially in markets like today’s.
| Name | YTD Performance | Performance since Feb 19, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| CI US Quality Div. Growth ETF (DGR.B) | -0.8% | -3.7% |
| S&P 500 TR (CAD) | -3.8% | -6.5% |
Source: Morningstar Direct, as at April 2, 2025
STANDARD PERFORMANCE TABLE FOR PANIC TO PERSPECTIVE
| Name | Ticker | Inception Date | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | Since Inception |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CI Gold Bullion Fund | VALT.B | 2021-03-17 | 9.8 | 19.4 | 26.1 | 49.4 | 22.5 | - | 19.6 |
| CI Auspice Broad Commodity Fund | CCOM | 2022-09-22 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 7.3 | - | - | 3.6 |
| CI US Quality Dividend Growth Index ETF | DGR.B | 2016-07-12 | -4.5 | -1.0 | 2.7 | 12.7 | 14.9 | 17.8 | 13.9 |
Source: Morningstar Direct, as at March 31, 2025
Collectively, these tools support portfolios built not just for what’s expected, but for what’s possible. We hope this serves as a timely reminder of why sticking with the strategy works.
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About the Author
Adam Bahram is the Director of ETF Strategy at CI GAM, where he plays a key role in driving the growth of the ETF business across Canada. In this role, Adam is responsible for setting and executing the ETF sales strategy as well as supporting the ETF sales team.
Adam brings extensive experience in buy-side research analysis, asset allocation and portfolio management. Prior to joining CI GAM, he served as an Associate Client Portfolio Manager on the Asset Allocation team at TD Asset Management, where he developed expertise in constructing and managing investment strategies. Adam also has experience serving on the investment committee of a wealth management firm.
Adam holds a Master of Finance from the Sobey School of Business at Saint Mary’s University and is a CFA charter holder.
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