June 22, 2026
The SpaceX IPO: We Have Liftoff
KEY SUMMARY POINTS
- The IPO market has fundamentally changed. The U.S. public company count has been cut in half since the late 1990s from roughly 8,000 to under 4,000 today. Companies stay private far longer, and by the time they Initial Public Offering (IPO) the story is well developed. A slight majority of IPOs are underwater after three years, and roughly 65% underperform public peers. The odds are structurally against IPO buyers.
- SpaceX is not a typical IPO, and that cuts both ways. History's most spectacular IPO successes; Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, went public when their market caps were a fraction of the largest public companies. SpaceX already ranks within the Magnificent 7 by market cap. The business is extraordinary, but 100x returns from here require a different imagination than those historical precedents.
- Beneath the surface, the stock is in a tug-of-war between forced index demand, and a systematic supply unlock layered on top of three distinct businesses (Starlink, SpaceX, and xAI) at very different stages of maturity. The opportunity is real but demands careful treatment, not the exuberance that typically surrounds marquee IPOs.
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About the Author
Jeremy Rosa, Vice-President, Portfolio Manager – Equities, joined CI GAM in 2006. He brings over 17 years of industry experience to his role and team as portfolio manager, US equity. Prior to this role, Jeremy led the research effort in the information technology sector for another Canadian asset manager. Jeremy holds the CFA designation, is a graduate of Financial Planning Management at George Brown College, and is a member of CFA Society Toronto.
About the Author
Peter Hofstra, Senior Vice President, Co-Head of Equities – Research, and Portfolio Manager, brings a depth of experience in both investment and company management to the Equities team. Peter joined CI GAM in 2017 as Senior Portfolio Manager. Immediately before joining CI GAM, he was Chief Investment Officer and Managing Director of Investment Research at Manitou Investment Management, a firm that focuses on private client and institutional money management. He also co-founded a clean technology investment LP, which Manitou acquired. Prior to Manitou, Peter was a portfolio manager at a large mutual fund company where he co-managed a U.S. equity fund and was lead manager of a science and technology fund. Prior to starting his investment career, Peter helped build a technology firm, which went public and where he held the position of VP of Research and Development and was an officer of the company. Peter holds the CFA designation and has a B.Sc. in Chemistry and a Ph.D. in Engineering Physics.
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